Same Country, Different Worlds
Nigeria has been a country of two worlds. The government and the governed drive on the same roads but see different environments. For the business and the political class, the last three years have been the best they have seen in a long time. For many people among the governed, life has never been so bad.
Who is right?
In recent times, all the indicators of the Nigerian economy have been trending positive. GDP has maintained a growth streak, up by 4.4% in the second quarter of 2026. The All-Share Index of the Nigerian Exchange Group, which measures the direction of share price movements on the Nigerian stock market, has spiked by over 300% since May 2023. Foreign reserves is at $53 billion, up from $35 billion when the Tinubu administration came on board.
In September, FTSE Russell, a company owned by the London Stock Exchange (LSE) which generates stock market indices, returned the status of Nigeria as a “frontier market”, a privilege it withdrew in 2023. The country has also been included in the JP Morgan Government Bond Index – Emerging Market Edge, with a 7.4% weighting. There are strong indications that Nigeria may return to the MSCI Emerging Market Index from its current standalone status, a position it lost in February 2024.
Reviews from many multilateral and international organizations have been positive with many of them pointing to price-driven and liquid foreign exchange market, falling inflation and interest rates as signs of efficacy of the various measures that have been put in place since 2023.
Why are these reforms not showing up in Nigerian markets, in transport fares and in house rents? The government through its various spokesmen argue the pains Nigerians are going through are necessary for the positives showing around the indicators which are the things foreign investors, multilateral organizations and development agencies would like to see. The government targets a $1 trillion economy by 2030. The argument from government people is this king-size economy cannot come about without sacrifice.
Stability in the foreign exchange market has come from the withdrawal of CBN’s intervention. Subsidies have been removed from fuel and electricity. The pains have been enormous. Inflation rate, though declining, has remained stubbornly high standing at above 15% in August. Skyrocketing rent prices have driven many urban dwellers out of city centres, especially in high urban areas like Lagos and Abuja. The middle class continue to look for exit despite tighter immigration conditions by green pasture countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom and Canada.
“The reforms have been a mixed bag of macro-level progress accompanied by widespread public hardship and vital yet incomplete structural adjustments”, said Bismark Rewane, a respected business economist and CEO of Financial Derivatives, a consultancy.
Getting the benefits of the reform to trickle down without reversing its problem seems to be the headache for the Tinubu administration especially as it seeks to return to the people for a new mandate in early 2027.
For the business class, particularly owners of capital and vital assets, the story may not be that unpalatable. The Tinubu reforms have responded with positive signals where they are heavily represented. Share prices are up, property prices (particularly in prime locations) are rising, and corporate earnings have also remained strong, after the upheavals caused by the foreign exchange adjustments of three years ago. But that class is few and far between.
The Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), two years ago, said only 5% of Nigerians own shares. In the United States, it is over 60%; in the UK, it is around 45%. In big cities like Lagos and Abuja, over 50% of residents live in rented apartments.
“Inadvertently, the transmission effect of the Tinubu administration policy particularly on foreign exchange harmonization that has led to asset revaluation particularly in property and stock ownership, have not been captured by those at the bottom of the pyramid”, noted Osa Irabor, an investment analyst in Lagos.
A research by Reap & Arcenciel Limited, a management consulting firm and our sister company, shows that earnings among the top 10 companies listed on the Nigerian Exchange Group has risen by over 230% in the last two years. MTN, a major telecom operator, now earns over N100 billion ($74 million) monthly, amount sufficient to float two regional banks. Meanwhile, wage growth on the hand has been less corresponding. Minimum wage is N70,000 compared to N30,000 three years ago, a rise of just over 100%. So while the labourer groans, the capitalist smiles.
The wealth of the four Nigerians listed on Forbes list of billionaires has grown by 300% between 2023 and 2026. Meanwhile, the world Bank poverty index still has 55% (245 million) living below the poverty line. With the new turn of events, Forbes may see some few people joining from the Nigerian team in the next two years. Tony Elumelu and perhaps Aigboje Aig-Imokhuede are strong candidates.
But many members of the Tinubu team however believe that the reform is working. Aminu Masari, a former state government, recently he has never seen any administration with a better plan than the current administration in the last 40 years. Mr Masari is a senior figure in the campaign team of Mr Tinubu. But is Mr Masari viewpoint the same with the one of his drivers? This is a conclusion many people may find difficult to draw.
